For horseplayers, the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs is more than just a Grade III stakes race—it’s a $400,000 puzzle on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, offering 50-25-15-10-5 points to the top five finishers. Held annually in March over 1 1/16 miles on dirt, this race has a knack for producing both chalky winners and live longshots, while occasionally sending contenders to Churchill Downs. Let’s break down the last five runnings (2020–2024), recap the action, and uncover what these races tell us about betting and handicapping the Tampa trail.
2024: Domestic Product Noses Out a Wild Finish
- Winner: Domestic Product (Practical Joke) – 7-2
- Top Five: Domestic Product, No More Time (2-1), Grand Mo the First (5-1), Good Money (5-2), Midnite Mission (15-1)
- Time: 1:45.47
- ** Recap:** The 2024 Tampa Bay Derby was a rollercoaster for horseplayers—literally and figuratively. A tote system crash delayed the race by 30 minutes and forced it to run as a non-wagering event, leaving bettors high and dry. On the track, Domestic Product, trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, rallied wide off a glacial pace (:25.25, :51.14, 1:16.21) to win a four-horse photo by a neck over Sam F. Davis winner No More Time. Grand Mo the First and Good Money were right there, too, making it a blanket finish. The 84 Brisnet Speed Figure was modest, reflecting the slow tempo, but Domestic Product’s late kick (125 Brisnet Late Pace rating) showed grit.
- Betting Takeaway: Without wagering, we can only speculate, but the morning line suggested a tight field. No More Time, the post-time favorite, set up perfectly but couldn’t hold off the closer. Pace players might’ve leaned toward Good Money (the early leader), but closers ruled the day. Domestic Product later ran third in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, hinting at untapped potential.
- Kentucky Derby Impact: Domestic Product (50 points) made the Derby but finished 13th. No More Time (25 points) also qualified, placing 15th.
2023: Tapit Trice Dominates as the Chalk
- Winner: Tapit Trice (Tapit) – 4-5
- Top Five: Tapit Trice, Classic Car Wash (15-1), Classic Legacy (10-1), Prairie Hawk (8-1), Lord Miles (12-1)
- Time: 1:43.37
- Recap: Todd Pletcher’s Tapit Trice, a $1.3 million yearling, lived up to his billing as the heavy favorite. With Luis Saez aboard, he tracked midpack before unleashing a powerful stretch run to win by two lengths over Classic Car Wash. The pace was honest, and Tapit Trice’s 101 Brisnet Speed Figure marked him as a serious contender. Classic Car Wash ran a sneaky-good race at 15-1, while Lord Miles (fifth) later shocked the Wood Memorial at 59-1.
- Betting Takeaway: Chalk players cashed easily, but the exotics offered value—Classic Car Wash spiced up the exacta (paying $44.60 for $2). Tapit Trice looked green early, hinting he’d improve with experience, a clue for future bets. Pace handicappers might’ve faded the front-runners here.
- Kentucky Derby Impact: Tapit Trice (50 points) ran seventh in the Derby, showing promise but not peak form.
2022: Classic Causeway Wires the Field
- Winner: Classic Causeway (Giant’s Causeway) – 6-5
- Top Five: Classic Causeway, Grantham (20-1), Major General (8-1), Golden Glider (10-1), Shipsational (5-1)
- Time: 1:44.37
- Recap: Trained by Brian Lynch and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., Classic Causeway went gate-to-wire, shrugging off pressure to win by 2 1/2 lengths over longshot Grantham. The 96 Brisnet Speed Figure was solid, and his front-running style suited Tampa’s dirt. Grantham’s runner-up finish at 20-1 was a gift for exotic players, while Major General (third) had backers scratching their heads after a hyped-up Sam F. Davis win.
- Betting Takeaway: Speed held up, rewarding those who backed Classic Causeway’s wire job. The exacta with Grantham ($92.40 for $2) was a score for contrarians. Watch for Tampa races where speed can dominate.
- Kentucky Derby Impact: Classic Causeway (50 points) faded to 11th in the Derby after a tough Florida Derby prep.
2021: Helium Pulls the Upset
- Winner: Helium (Ironicus) – 15-1
- Top Five: Helium, Hidden Stash (5-1), Moonlite Strike (10-1), Unbridled Honor (8-1), Boca Boy (30-1)
- Time: 1:43.55
- Recap: Mark Casse’s Helium, with Jose Ferrer up, shocked the field at 15-1, stalking the pace and drawing off by 3/4 length over Hidden Stash. The 89 Brisnet Speed Figure wasn’t dazzling, but his tactical speed and a perfect trip paid off. Hidden Stash ran well at 5-1, while favorites like Candy Man Rocket (5-2) flopped (sixth). This was a classic case of a lightly raced horse peaking at the right time.
- Betting Takeaway: Longshot players rejoiced—Helium returned $32.40 to win, and the exacta with Hidden Stash paid $202.80 for $2. Dig into lightly raced horses with upside at Tampa; the public often overlooks them.
- Kentucky Derby Impact: Helium (50 points) skipped the Derby, while Hidden Stash (25 points) ran 14th.
2020: King Guillermo’s Monster Move
- Winner: King Guillermo (Uncle Mo) – 49-1
- Top Five: King Guillermo, Sole Volante (9-5), Texas Swing (30-1), Chance It (8-1), Relentless Dancer (20-1)
- Time: 1:42.63
- Recap: Juan Avila’s King Guillermo, ridden by Samy Camacho, turned the 2020 Tampa Bay Derby into a bomb-fest, roaring from off the pace to crush Sole Volante by 4 3/4 lengths at 49-1. The 101 Brisnet Speed Figure was legit, and his explosive move screamed talent. Sole Volante, the favorite, ran a game second but couldn’t match the winner’s kick. This was a race where pace collapsed, and closers thrived.
- Betting Takeaway: A $100.60 win payout and a $298.80 exacta (with Sole Volante) made this a dream for longshot hunters. King Guillermo’s prior form was modest—proof that Tampa can reward bombs with the right setup.
- Kentucky Derby Impact: King Guillermo (50 points) opted for the Arkansas Derby (second) and skipped Churchill due to COVID rescheduling.
Handicapping Lessons for Horseplayers
- Pace Matters: Speed held in 2022 (Classic Causeway), but closers won in 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024. Check the fractions—slow early splits favor late runners at Tampa.
- Value Hides in the Exotics: Even with favorites like Tapit Trice and Classic Causeway, second- and third-place finishers (Grantham, Classic Car Wash) juiced up payouts.
- Longshots Shine: Helium (15-1) and King Guillermo (49-1) prove Tampa’s Derby can defy the odds. Look for improving 3-year-olds with sneaky form.
- Derby Predictability? Meh: Only two of these winners (Tapit Trice, Domestic Product) ran decently in the Kentucky Derby. Tampa’s a stepping stone, not a crystal ball.
Final Thoughts
The Tampa Bay Derby is a handicapper’s playground—sometimes it’s chalky, sometimes it’s chaos. For 2025 (March 8), keep an eye on pace scenarios and don’t sleep on under-the-radar runners. Whether you’re chasing the win pool or boxing an exacta, this race rewards sharp players who do their homework. What’s your favorite Tampa Bay Derby memory from the last five years? Chat us up on social!
